Overview
What is Trend Following Strategy?
Trend following is one of the oldest and most rigorously tested systematic trading approaches. Its core principle is simple: identify an established trend and trade in its direction until evidence of reversal emerges. The philosophy is captured in the adage "the trend is your friend β until it ends."
The strategy is inherently reactive β it does not predict where price will go, only identifies which direction it is currently moving and positions accordingly. Trend followers accept that they will miss the beginning and end of every trend but seek to capture the substantial middle portion.
Entry signals are typically generated by breakouts of recent highs or lows, moving average crossovers, or Donchian channel breakouts. Position sizing often uses ATR-based volatility targeting: larger positions in low-volatility environments, smaller ones when volatility spikes, so that every trade represents a roughly equal risk. Exits are governed by trailing stops rather than fixed profit targets β the position rides as long as the trend continues.
The strategy performs best in strongly trending markets (commodities, currencies, crypto during bull runs) and struggles in range-bound or mean-reverting environments. Diversification across many uncorrelated markets is the standard approach to smooth the inevitable drawdown periods.